LoL Draft Value Bot observe/paper only

updated 2026-06-04T20:44:18Z
modepaper
markets2760
eligible shown34
tracked4
live now1
watching10
scan sec20
draftgap pnl$-13.03
own pnl$-6.52
open paper2
take profit hits0
draftgaploaded
own data172 champs

Live Readiness

NOT LIVE READYresearch/data-collection mode; live execution remains blocked
GateStatusValueRequired
live_trading_enabledfailFalsemanual switch is still required
min_resolved_samplefail14300
positive_roi_after_spreadpass0.12350.03
positive_clvpasspositive_clv_rate=0.9253 over 910 resultsTrue
model_version_frozenfailresearch_models_unfrozen
manual_enable_requiredfailnot_requested

Live / Betting Soon / Now

MatchGameMarketOddsDraftModelsShadowPaper
NACL
Winthrop University vs CCG Esports
G1
inProgress - paper_position_open
feed: draft_locked / 200
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner
lol-wu-ccg-2026-06-04-game1
Winthrop University: bid 46.0% / ask 51.0%
CCG Esports: bid 49.0% / ask 54.0%
Winthrop University: sion, wukong, orianna, jhin, neeko
CCG Esports: swain, nocturne, azir, xayah, leona
lol_esports_live_stats - 2026-06-04T20:21:53.212Z - age 20.0m
draft_too_old
agree:
waitingown: CCG Esports @ 52.0%, mark 49.0%, $-0.29 - 9.61 sh
draftgap_style: CCG Esports @ 52.0%, mark 49.0%, $-0.29 - 9.61 sh

Watching

MatchGameMarketOddsDraftModelsShadowPaper
LCP
GAM Esports vs MVK Esports
G1
unstarted - waiting_for_game
feed: not probed
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner
lol-mvk-gam-2026-06-05-game1
MVK Esports: bid 41.0% / ask 43.0%
GAM Esports: bid 57.0% / ask 59.0%
waitingno_matching_locked_draft
agree:
waitingnone
LPL
LGD GAMING vs Anyone's Legend
G1
unstarted - waiting_for_game
feed: not probed
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner
lol-al-lgd-2026-06-05-game1
Anyone's Legend: bid 73.0% / ask 75.0%
LGD Gaming: bid 25.0% / ask 27.0%
waitingno_matching_locked_draft
agree:
waitingnone
LCP
GAM Esports vs MVK Esports
G2
unstarted - waiting_for_game
feed: not probed
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner
lol-mvk-gam-2026-06-05-game2
MVK Esports: bid 40.0% / ask 43.0%
GAM Esports: bid 57.0% / ask 60.0%
waitingno_matching_locked_draft
agree:
waitingnone
LPL
LGD GAMING vs Anyone's Legend
G2
unstarted - waiting_for_game
feed: not probed
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner
lol-al-lgd-2026-06-05-game2
Anyone's Legend: bid 74.0% / ask 75.0%
LGD Gaming: bid 25.0% / ask 26.0%
waitingno_matching_locked_draft
agree:
waitingnone
LCP
GAM Esports vs MVK Esports
G3
unstarted - waiting_for_game
feed: not probed
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winner
lol-mvk-gam-2026-06-05-game3
MVK Esports: bid 41.0% / ask 43.0%
GAM Esports: bid 57.0% / ask 59.0%
waitingno_matching_locked_draft
agree:
waitingnone
LPL
LGD GAMING vs Anyone's Legend
G3
unstarted - waiting_for_game
feed: not probed
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner
lol-al-lgd-2026-06-05-game3
Anyone's Legend: bid 74.0% / ask 75.0%
LGD Gaming: bid 25.0% / ask 26.0%
waitingno_matching_locked_draft
agree:
waitingnone
LPL
LGD GAMING vs Anyone's Legend
G4
unstarted - waiting_for_game
feed: not probed
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner
lol-al-lgd-2026-06-05-game4
Anyone's Legend: bid 66.0% / ask 67.0%
LGD Gaming: bid 33.0% / ask 34.0%
waitingno_matching_locked_draft
agree:
waitingnone
TCL
PCIFIC Esports vs MISA Esports
G1
unstarted - waiting_for_game
feed: not probed
LoL: Misa Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 1 Winner
lol-me1-pcific-2026-06-05-game1
Misa Esports: bid 78.0% / ask 80.0%
PCIFIC : bid 20.0% / ask 22.0%
waitingno_matching_locked_draft
agree:
waitingnone
TCL
PCIFIC Esports vs MISA Esports
G2
unstarted - waiting_for_game
feed: not probed
LoL: Misa Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 2 Winner
lol-me1-pcific-2026-06-05-game2
Misa Esports: bid 78.0% / ask 80.0%
PCIFIC : bid 20.0% / ask 22.0%
waitingno_matching_locked_draft
agree:
waitingnone
TCL
PCIFIC Esports vs MISA Esports
G3
unstarted - waiting_for_game
feed: not probed
LoL: Misa Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 3 Winner
lol-me1-pcific-2026-06-05-game3
Misa Esports: bid 77.0% / ask 80.0%
PCIFIC : bid 20.0% / ask 23.0%
waitingno_matching_locked_draft
agree:
waitingnone

Tracked Matchups

LeagueStartFeed TeamsFeed GamesPolymarket Games
NACL
116170292916656913
2026-06-04T20:00:00Z
inProgress
Winthrop University vs CCG EsportsG1: inProgress | G2: unstarted | G3: unstarted | G4: unstarted | G5: unstartedG1: Winthrop University 51.0% / CCG Esports 54.0% lol-wu-ccg-2026-06-04-game1
LCP
115570683341512217
2026-06-05T09:00:00Z
unstarted
GAM Esports vs MVK EsportsG1: unstarted | G2: unstarted | G3: unstarted | G4: unstarted | G5: unstartedG1: MVK Esports 43.0% / GAM Esports 59.0% lol-mvk-gam-2026-06-05-game1
G2: MVK Esports 43.0% / GAM Esports 60.0% lol-mvk-gam-2026-06-05-game2
G3: MVK Esports 43.0% / GAM Esports 59.0% lol-mvk-gam-2026-06-05-game3
LPL
115616219464607497
2026-06-05T09:00:00Z
unstarted
LGD GAMING vs Anyone's LegendG1: unstarted | G2: unstarted | G3: unstarted | G4: unstarted | G5: unstartedG1: Anyone's Legend 75.0% / LGD Gaming 27.0% lol-al-lgd-2026-06-05-game1
G2: Anyone's Legend 75.0% / LGD Gaming 26.0% lol-al-lgd-2026-06-05-game2
G3: Anyone's Legend 75.0% / LGD Gaming 26.0% lol-al-lgd-2026-06-05-game3
G4: Anyone's Legend 67.0% / LGD Gaming 34.0% lol-al-lgd-2026-06-05-game4
TCL
116356270007984091
2026-06-05T14:30:00Z
unstarted
PCIFIC Esports vs MISA EsportsG1: unstarted | G2: unstarted | G3: unstarted | G4: unstarted | G5: unstartedG1: Misa Esports 80.0% / PCIFIC 22.0% lol-me1-pcific-2026-06-05-game1
G2: Misa Esports 80.0% / PCIFIC 22.0% lol-me1-pcific-2026-06-05-game2
G3: Misa Esports 80.0% / PCIFIC 23.0% lol-me1-pcific-2026-06-05-game3

Market Skip Reasons

ambiguous_teams2147
ambiguous_game_number289
series_or_tournament_market154
market_closed107
spread_too_wide20
not_lol5
no_order_book4

Signal Skip Reasons

no_matching_locked_draft33
draft_too_old1

Paper Positions

ModelTeamStatusEntryMarkPnLSharesNotionalOpened
draftgap_styleAnyone's Legendresolved46.0%n/a$-5.0010.86$5.002026-06-01T10:25:43Z
ownXi'an Team WEresolved43.0%99.9%$6.6211.62$5.002026-06-01T11:09:50Z
draftgap_styleXi'an Team WEresolved43.0%99.9%$6.6211.62$5.002026-06-01T11:09:50Z
ownKarmine Corpresolved74.0%99.9%$1.756.75$5.002026-06-01T15:09:03Z
draftgap_styleGIANTXresolved27.0%3.0%$-5.0018.51$5.002026-06-01T15:09:03Z
ownGIANTXresolved30.0%1.0%$-5.0016.66$5.002026-06-01T16:07:02Z
draftgap_styleGIANTXresolved30.0%1.0%$-5.0016.66$5.002026-06-01T16:07:02Z
ownGIANTXresolved30.0%1.0%$-5.0016.66$5.002026-06-01T16:57:25Z
draftgap_styleKarmine Corpresolved71.0%99.9%$2.047.04$5.002026-06-01T16:57:25Z
ownKaBuM! Eportsresolved43.0%99.9%$6.6211.62$5.002026-06-01T20:21:40Z
draftgap_styleKaBuM! Eportsresolved43.0%99.9%$6.6211.62$5.002026-06-01T20:21:40Z
ownVivo Keyd Stars Academyresolved59.0%99.9%$3.478.47$5.002026-06-01T21:17:50Z
draftgap_styleVivo Keyd Stars Academyresolved59.0%99.9%$3.478.47$5.002026-06-01T21:17:50Z
ownVivo Keyd Stars Academyresolved50.0%5.0%$-5.0010.0$5.002026-06-01T22:08:25Z
draftgap_styleVivo Keyd Stars Academyresolved50.0%5.0%$-5.0010.0$5.002026-06-01T22:08:25Z
ownKaBuM! Eportsresolved65.0%7.0%$-5.007.69$5.002026-06-01T23:02:54Z
draftgap_styleKaBuM! Eportsresolved65.0%7.0%$-5.007.69$5.002026-06-01T23:02:54Z
ownTHUNDER TALK GAMINGresolved48.0%1.2%$-5.0010.41$5.002026-06-02T10:06:02Z
draftgap_styleTHUNDER TALK GAMINGresolved48.0%1.2%$-5.0010.41$5.002026-06-02T10:06:02Z
ownTHUNDER TALK GAMINGresolved47.0%99.9%$5.6310.63$5.002026-06-02T11:02:30Z
draftgap_styleTHUNDER TALK GAMINGresolved47.0%99.9%$5.6310.63$5.002026-06-02T11:02:30Z
ownTHUNDER TALK GAMINGresolved57.0%99.9%$3.778.77$5.002026-06-02T11:56:56Z
draftgap_styleLGD GAMINGresolved44.0%1.0%$-5.0011.36$5.002026-06-02T11:56:56Z
ownNightBirdsresolved79.0%99.9%$1.336.32$4.992026-06-02T14:10:38Z
draftgap_styleNightBirdsresolved79.0%99.9%$1.336.32$4.992026-06-02T14:10:38Z
owneSubaresolved23.0%0.1%$-5.0021.73$5.002026-06-02T15:05:54Z
draftgap_styleNightBirdsresolved84.0%99.9%$0.955.95$5.002026-06-02T15:05:54Z
owneSubaresolved16.0%1.0%$-5.0031.25$5.002026-06-02T15:52:09Z
draftgap_styleeSubaresolved16.0%1.0%$-5.0031.25$5.002026-06-02T15:52:09Z
ownThe Banditsresolved52.0%99.0%$4.619.61$5.002026-06-02T16:07:33Z
draftgap_styleThe Banditsresolved52.0%99.0%$4.619.61$5.002026-06-02T16:07:33Z
ownThe Banditsresolved60.0%99.0%$3.338.33$5.002026-06-02T17:03:24Z
draftgap_stylemCon Esportsresolved41.0%6.0%$-5.0012.19$5.002026-06-02T17:03:24Z
ownThe Banditsresolved62.0%17.0%$-5.008.06$5.002026-06-02T17:56:43Z
draftgap_stylemCon Esportsresolved39.0%99.9%$7.8212.82$5.002026-06-02T17:56:43Z
ownThe Banditsresolved55.0%5.0%$-5.009.09$5.002026-06-02T18:52:52Z
draftgap_styleThe Banditsresolved55.0%5.0%$-5.009.09$5.002026-06-02T18:52:52Z
ownBublikiresolved55.0%3.0%$-5.009.09$5.002026-06-02T20:32:43Z
draftgap_styleCrusadersresolved49.0%99.9%$5.2010.2$5.002026-06-02T20:32:44Z
ownBILIBILI GAMINGresolved89.0%99.9%$0.625.61$4.992026-06-03T10:12:11Z
draftgap_styleBILIBILI GAMINGresolved89.0%99.9%$0.625.61$4.992026-06-03T10:12:11Z
ownNew Metaresolved59.0%99.9%$3.478.47$5.002026-06-03T10:20:49Z
draftgap_styleNew Metaresolved59.0%99.9%$3.478.47$5.002026-06-03T10:20:49Z
ownBILIBILI GAMINGresolved89.0%99.9%$0.625.61$4.992026-06-03T11:06:18Z
draftgap_styleEDWARD GAMINGresolved13.0%1.0%$-5.0038.46$5.002026-06-03T11:06:18Z
ownHeretics Academyresolved72.0%73.0%$1.946.94$5.002026-06-03T15:15:36Z
draftgap_styleHeretics Academyresolved72.0%73.0%$1.946.94$5.002026-06-03T15:15:37Z
ownBarça Esportsresolved22.0%30.0%$-5.0022.72$5.002026-06-03T15:59:02Z
draftgap_styleBarça Esportsresolved22.0%30.0%$-5.0022.72$5.002026-06-03T15:59:02Z
ownGalionsresolved17.0%22.0%$-5.0029.41$5.002026-06-03T16:16:27Z
draftgap_styleSolaryresolved88.0%99.9%$0.685.68$5.002026-06-03T16:16:27Z
ownBarça Esportsresolved27.0%99.9%$13.5118.51$5.002026-06-03T16:52:08Z
draftgap_styleBarça Esportsresolved27.0%99.9%$13.5118.51$5.002026-06-03T16:52:08Z
ownSolaryresolved66.0%99.9%$2.577.57$5.002026-06-03T16:59:06Z
draftgap_styleGalionsresolved36.0%9.0%$-5.0013.88$5.002026-06-03T16:59:06Z
ownHeretics Academyresolved81.0%99.9%$1.176.17$5.002026-06-03T17:45:51Z
draftgap_styleBarça Esportsresolved21.0%1.0%$-5.0023.8$5.002026-06-03T17:45:51Z
ownSolaryresolved67.0%6.0%$-5.007.46$5.002026-06-03T17:55:34Z
draftgap_styleSolaryresolved67.0%6.0%$-5.007.46$5.002026-06-03T17:55:34Z
ownGalionsresolved41.0%39.0%$-5.0012.19$5.002026-06-03T18:45:41Z
draftgap_styleGalionsresolved41.0%39.0%$-5.0012.19$5.002026-06-03T18:45:42Z
ownMovistar KOI Fénixresolved65.0%99.0%$2.697.69$5.002026-06-04T15:15:17Z
draftgap_styleMovistar KOI Fénixresolved65.0%99.0%$2.697.69$5.002026-06-04T15:15:17Z
ownCCG Esportsopen52.0%49.0%$-0.299.61$5.002026-06-04T20:11:02Z
draftgap_styleCCG Esportsopen52.0%49.0%$-0.299.61$5.002026-06-04T20:11:02Z

Paper Model Stats

ModelEntriesOpenResolvedWinsLossesPnL
draftgap_style331321616$-13.03
own321311714$-6.52

Shadow Model Leaderboard

ModelPolicyResolvedW/LPnLAvg ROI
own_draft_onlyunderdog_only_any_edge146 / 8$8.6412.3%
own_draft_onlyclosing_line_value_tracker2616 / 10$8.406.5%
own_draft_onlymodel_favorite_any_price2616 / 10$8.406.5%
draftgap_current_patchown_and_draftgap_agree1710 / 7$6.908.1%
own_draft_onlyown_and_draftgap_agree1710 / 7$6.727.9%
draftgap_styleclosing_line_value_tracker11 / 0$6.62132.6%
draftgap_stylemodel_disagreement_tracker11 / 0$6.62132.6%
draftgap_stylemodel_favorite_any_price11 / 0$6.62132.6%
draftgap_styleodds_aware_value_edge_3pct11 / 0$6.62132.6%
draftgap_styleodds_aware_value_edge_5pct11 / 0$6.62132.6%
draftgap_styleodds_aware_value_edge_8pct11 / 0$6.62132.6%
draftgap_styleown_and_draftgap_agree11 / 0$6.62132.6%
draftgap_styleunderdog_only_any_edge11 / 0$6.62132.6%
ownclosing_line_value_tracker11 / 0$6.62132.6%
ownmodel_disagreement_tracker11 / 0$6.62132.6%
ownmodel_favorite_any_price11 / 0$6.62132.6%
ownodds_aware_value_edge_3pct11 / 0$6.62132.6%
ownodds_aware_value_edge_5pct11 / 0$6.62132.6%
ownodds_aware_value_edge_8pct11 / 0$6.62132.6%
ownown_and_draftgap_agree11 / 0$6.62132.6%

Benchmark Leaderboard

ModelPolicyResolvedW/LPnLAvg ROI
market_prior_baselineown_and_draftgap_agree2215 / 7$8.397.6%
market_prior_baselineclosing_line_value_tracker3423 / 11$6.123.6%
market_prior_baselinemodel_favorite_any_price3423 / 11$6.123.6%
market_prior_baselinemodel_disagreement_tracker3121 / 10$5.083.3%
blue_side_baselinefavorite_only_if_edge11 / 0$5.00100.0%
random_50_50_baselineclosing_line_value_tracker2617 / 9$4.853.7%
random_50_50_baselinemodel_favorite_any_price2617 / 9$4.853.7%
random_50_50_baselinemodel_disagreement_tracker2516 / 9$2.912.3%
blue_side_baselinemodel_agreement_only32 / 1$1.046.9%
market_prior_baselinemodel_agreement_only32 / 1$1.046.9%
random_50_50_baselinemodel_agreement_only32 / 1$1.046.9%
random_50_50_baselineunderdog_only_any_edge125 / 7$0.701.2%
blue_side_baselineown_and_draftgap_agree179 / 8$-0.76-0.9%
blue_side_baselineodds_aware_value_edge_5pct124 / 8$-1.76-2.9%
random_50_50_baselineown_and_draftgap_agree1710 / 7$-2.84-3.3%
random_50_50_baselineodds_aware_value_edge_3pct114 / 7$-4.05-7.4%
random_50_50_baselineodds_aware_value_edge_5pct93 / 6$-4.20-9.3%
blue_side_baselineodds_aware_value_edge_8pct113 / 8$-6.41-11.7%
blue_side_baselineodds_aware_value_edge_3pct134 / 9$-8.18-12.6%
blue_side_baselineunderdog_only_any_edge134 / 9$-8.18-12.6%

Closing Line Value (Shadow)

positive CLV rate: 92.5%computed: 910missing: 1078
ModelPolicyWith CLVAvg CLV (mid)Avg CLV (ask)Positive CLV %
own_draft_onlyclosing_line_value_tracker1626.2%3.3%93.8%
own_draft_onlymodel_favorite_any_price1626.2%3.3%93.8%
own_draft_onlymodel_disagreement_tracker1527.6%4.4%93.3%
draftgap_current_patchclosing_line_value_tracker1526.0%-1.5%93.3%
draftgap_current_patchmodel_favorite_any_price1526.0%-1.5%93.3%
own_v2_pro_baselineclosing_line_value_tracker1525.6%-1.5%93.3%
own_v2_pro_baselinemodel_favorite_any_price1525.6%-1.5%93.3%
own_v2_draft_adjustedclosing_line_value_tracker1525.5%-1.8%93.3%
own_v2_draft_adjustedmodel_favorite_any_price1525.5%-1.8%93.3%
ownclosing_line_value_tracker1525.5%-2.1%93.3%
ownmodel_favorite_any_price1525.5%-2.1%93.3%
draftgap_current_patchmodel_disagreement_tracker1427.6%-0.5%92.9%
own_v2_pro_baselinemodel_disagreement_tracker1427.2%-0.6%92.9%
own_v2_draft_adjustedmodel_disagreement_tracker1427.1%-1.0%92.9%
ownmodel_disagreement_tracker1427.0%-1.3%92.9%
own_team_prior_onlyclosing_line_value_tracker1423.6%-3.6%92.9%
own_team_prior_onlymodel_favorite_any_price1423.6%-3.6%92.9%
draftgap_styleclosing_line_value_tracker1423.5%-3.2%85.7%
draftgap_stylemodel_favorite_any_price1423.5%-3.2%85.7%
own_no_team_priorclosing_line_value_tracker1423.5%-4.3%92.9%
own_no_team_priormodel_favorite_any_price1423.5%-4.3%92.9%
own_team_prior_onlymodel_disagreement_tracker1325.2%-2.8%92.3%
draftgap_stylemodel_disagreement_tracker1325.0%-2.4%84.6%
own_no_team_priormodel_disagreement_tracker1325.0%-3.5%92.3%
draftgap_high_riskclosing_line_value_tracker1321.2%-5.4%84.6%
draftgap_high_riskmodel_favorite_any_price1321.2%-5.4%84.6%
draftgap_low_riskclosing_line_value_tracker1321.2%-5.4%84.6%
draftgap_low_riskmodel_favorite_any_price1321.2%-5.4%84.6%
draftgap_30_daysclosing_line_value_tracker1319.5%-5.8%76.9%
draftgap_30_daysmodel_favorite_any_price1319.5%-5.8%76.9%
draftgap_ignore_champion_winratesclosing_line_value_tracker1225.5%-2.6%83.3%
draftgap_ignore_champion_winratesmodel_favorite_any_price1225.5%-2.6%83.3%
draftgap_high_riskmodel_disagreement_tracker1222.6%-4.6%83.3%
draftgap_low_riskmodel_disagreement_tracker1222.6%-4.6%83.3%
draftgap_30_daysmodel_disagreement_tracker1220.8%-5.0%75.0%
draftgap_ignore_champion_winratesmodel_disagreement_tracker1127.5%-1.7%81.8%
draftgap_current_patchown_and_draftgap_agree1027.4%-1.2%100.0%
own_v2_pro_baselineown_and_draftgap_agree1026.2%-0.7%90.0%
own_v2_draft_adjustedown_and_draftgap_agree1026.1%-1.2%90.0%
draftgap_styleown_and_draftgap_agree1026.0%-1.7%90.0%
ownown_and_draftgap_agree1026.0%-1.7%90.0%
own_draft_onlyown_and_draftgap_agree1025.2%0.6%90.0%
draftgap_ignore_champion_winratesown_and_draftgap_agree925.1%-0.3%77.8%
own_team_prior_onlyown_and_draftgap_agree923.2%-3.9%88.9%
draftgap_high_riskown_and_draftgap_agree922.9%-5.0%88.9%
draftgap_low_riskown_and_draftgap_agree922.9%-5.0%88.9%
own_no_team_priorown_and_draftgap_agree922.9%-5.0%88.9%
draftgap_30_daysown_and_draftgap_agree920.6%-5.5%77.8%
draftgap_ignore_champion_winratesodds_aware_value_edge_5pct740.6%-3.1%100.0%
draftgap_ignore_champion_winratesodds_aware_value_edge_3pct740.3%-3.2%100.0%
draftgap_ignore_champion_winratesunderdog_only_any_edge740.3%-2.3%100.0%
own_draft_onlyunderdog_only_any_edge646.9%4.3%100.0%
own_v2_draft_adjustedodds_aware_value_edge_3pct646.7%-3.6%100.0%
draftgap_current_patchodds_aware_value_edge_3pct642.7%-6.4%100.0%
draftgap_styleodds_aware_value_edge_8pct640.8%-6.9%100.0%
draftgap_styleodds_aware_value_edge_5pct640.2%-7.8%100.0%
draftgap_styleunderdog_only_any_edge640.2%-6.8%100.0%
draftgap_styleodds_aware_value_edge_3pct639.6%-8.0%100.0%
own_draft_onlyodds_aware_value_edge_5pct547.9%-0.3%100.0%
ownodds_aware_value_edge_5pct547.7%-3.4%100.0%
own_v2_draft_adjustedodds_aware_value_edge_8pct547.6%2.1%100.0%
own_v2_pro_baselineodds_aware_value_edge_5pct547.6%1.8%100.0%
ownodds_aware_value_edge_3pct547.5%-3.7%100.0%
own_draft_onlyodds_aware_value_edge_3pct547.5%-0.4%100.0%
ownunderdog_only_any_edge547.1%-2.6%100.0%
own_v2_pro_baselineodds_aware_value_edge_3pct547.0%-2.1%100.0%
own_v2_draft_adjustedodds_aware_value_edge_5pct546.4%-2.0%100.0%
own_v2_draft_adjustedunderdog_only_any_edge546.4%-2.9%100.0%
own_v2_pro_baselineunderdog_only_any_edge546.4%-2.5%100.0%
draftgap_current_patchunderdog_only_any_edge542.6%-8.2%100.0%
draftgap_low_riskodds_aware_value_edge_8pct538.6%-10.8%100.0%
draftgap_high_riskodds_aware_value_edge_8pct538.2%-10.5%100.0%
draftgap_30_daysunderdog_only_any_edge537.6%-9.8%100.0%
draftgap_high_riskodds_aware_value_edge_5pct537.6%-11.4%100.0%
draftgap_high_riskunderdog_only_any_edge537.6%-10.3%100.0%
draftgap_low_riskodds_aware_value_edge_5pct537.6%-11.4%100.0%
draftgap_low_riskunderdog_only_any_edge537.6%-10.3%100.0%
draftgap_ignore_champion_winratesodds_aware_value_edge_8pct537.5%-8.2%100.0%
draftgap_30_daysodds_aware_value_edge_5pct537.4%-10.9%100.0%
draftgap_30_daysodds_aware_value_edge_3pct536.8%-11.0%100.0%
draftgap_high_riskodds_aware_value_edge_3pct536.8%-11.6%100.0%
draftgap_low_riskodds_aware_value_edge_3pct536.8%-11.6%100.0%
ownodds_aware_value_edge_8pct448.4%-5.6%100.0%
own_v2_pro_baselineodds_aware_value_edge_8pct447.8%-1.8%100.0%
own_no_team_priorodds_aware_value_edge_5pct446.2%-7.9%100.0%
own_team_prior_onlyodds_aware_value_edge_5pct446.1%-2.6%100.0%
own_no_team_priorodds_aware_value_edge_3pct446.0%-8.2%100.0%
own_no_team_priorunderdog_only_any_edge445.5%-7.0%100.0%
own_team_prior_onlyodds_aware_value_edge_3pct445.4%-6.4%100.0%
own_team_prior_onlyunderdog_only_any_edge444.6%-6.9%100.0%
own_draft_onlyfavorite_only_if_edge444.2%3.3%100.0%
ownfavorite_only_if_edge443.2%2.8%100.0%
draftgap_current_patchodds_aware_value_edge_5pct443.0%-9.5%100.0%
draftgap_30_daysodds_aware_value_edge_8pct434.5%-13.7%100.0%
own_draft_onlyodds_aware_value_edge_8pct346.7%-8.2%100.0%
own_no_team_priorodds_aware_value_edge_8pct346.7%-10.6%100.0%
own_team_prior_onlyodds_aware_value_edge_8pct345.8%-6.9%100.0%
own_no_team_priorfavorite_only_if_edge342.8%-4.3%100.0%
draftgap_current_patchfavorite_only_if_edge342.0%-9.9%100.0%
draftgap_stylefavorite_only_if_edge341.8%-9.4%100.0%
own_v2_draft_adjustedfavorite_only_if_edge341.3%-10.5%100.0%
draftgap_ignore_champion_winratesfavorite_only_if_edge340.6%-2.8%100.0%
draftgap_current_patchodds_aware_value_edge_8pct340.3%-13.8%100.0%
draftgap_30_daysfavorite_only_if_edge339.5%-10.4%100.0%
draftgap_stylemodel_agreement_only329.2%6.3%100.0%
ownmodel_agreement_only329.2%6.3%100.0%
own_v2_draft_adjustedmodel_agreement_only329.2%6.3%100.0%
own_v2_pro_baselinemodel_agreement_only329.2%6.3%100.0%
draftgap_high_riskfavorite_only_if_edge325.0%-10.1%66.7%
own_v2_pro_baselinefavorite_only_if_edge247.2%48.0%100.0%
draftgap_low_riskfavorite_only_if_edge239.5%-23.9%100.0%
draftgap_30_daysmodel_agreement_only223.0%-5.6%100.0%
draftgap_current_patchmodel_agreement_only223.0%-5.6%100.0%
draftgap_high_riskmodel_agreement_only223.0%-5.6%100.0%
draftgap_ignore_champion_winratesmodel_agreement_only223.0%-5.6%100.0%
draftgap_low_riskmodel_agreement_only223.0%-5.6%100.0%
own_draft_onlymodel_agreement_only223.0%-5.6%100.0%
own_no_team_priormodel_agreement_only223.0%-5.6%100.0%
own_team_prior_onlymodel_agreement_only223.0%-5.6%100.0%
own_team_prior_onlyfavorite_only_if_edge148.0%49.0%100.0%
market_prior_baselineclosing_line_value_tracker141.5%-8.0%100.0%
market_prior_baselinemodel_agreement_only141.5%42.0%100.0%
market_prior_baselinemodel_favorite_any_price141.5%-8.0%100.0%
market_prior_baselineown_and_draftgap_agree141.5%-8.0%100.0%
market_prior_baselinemodel_disagreement_tracker0n/a-57.9%n/a

Model Status

ModelTypePaperTrainedBenchmarkIndependentUses MarketPredsVersionWarning
ownactive_modelTrue0FalseTrueFalse28own_v1_hand_weighted
blue_side_baselinebenchmarkFalse0TrueTrueFalse27blue_side_baseline_v1
champion_meta_2026shadow_onlyFalse0FalseTrueFalse27champion_meta_2026_unavailable
champion_meta_2026_unavailable:2026 champion meta model has not been trained yet
draftgap_30_daysshadow_onlyFalse0FalseTrueFalse27draftgap_30_days_v5
draftgap_current_patchshadow_onlyFalse0FalseTrueFalse27draftgap_current_patch_v5
draftgap_high_riskshadow_onlyFalse0FalseTrueFalse27draftgap_high_risk_v5
draftgap_ignore_champion_winratesshadow_onlyFalse0FalseTrueFalse27draftgap_ignore_champion_winrates_v5
draftgap_low_riskshadow_onlyFalse0FalseTrueFalse27draftgap_low_risk_v5
draftgap_styleactive_modelTrue0FalseTrueFalse28draftgap_style_v5
external_manual_importshadow_onlyFalse0FalseTrueFalse28external_manual_import_v1
external_manual_import_unavailable:no_matching_imported_prediction
market_prior_baselinebenchmarkFalse0TrueFalseTrue28market_prior_baseline_v1
own_draft_onlyshadow_onlyFalse0FalseTrueFalse27own_draft_only_heuristic_v1
own_no_team_priorshadow_onlyFalse0FalseTrueFalse27own_no_team_prior_heuristic_v1
own_team_prior_onlyshadow_onlyFalse0FalseTrueFalse27own_team_prior_only_heuristic_2026-06-01
missing_team_prior_default_used
own_v2_draft_adjustedshadow_onlyFalse1FalseTrueFalse29own_v2_sklearn_logistic_2026_recency
current_patch_not_in_training_patch_range
own_v2_pro_baselineshadow_onlyFalse0FalseTrueFalse28own_v2_pro_baseline_heuristic_2026-06-01
missing_team_prior_default_used
player_champion_comfort_2026shadow_onlyFalse0FalseTrueFalse27player_champion_comfort_2026_unavailable
player_champion_comfort_2026_unavailable:2026 player-champion comfort model has not been trained yet
random_50_50_baselinebenchmarkFalse0TrueTrueFalse27random_50_50_baseline_v1
team_elo_2026shadow_onlyFalse0FalseTrueFalse27team_elo_2026_unavailable
team_elo_2026_unavailable:2026 team Elo model has not been trained yet

Historical Training Status

2026 only2026 - 2026
unified dataset rows5422
own_v2 trainedTrue
training statustrained
rows usable3795
rows rejected
message

Research Settlement Status

unresolved_shadow_conditions1
settled_shadow_conditions0
shadow_results_pending124
shadow_results_resolved2396
settlement_fetch_errors0

Data Health

modelsblue_side_baseline, champion_meta_2026, draftgap_30_days, draftgap_current_patch, draftgap_high_risk, draftgap_ignore_champion_winrates, draftgap_low_risk, draftgap_style, external_manual_import, market_prior_baseline, own_draft_only, own_no_team_prior, own_team_prior_only, own_v2_draft_adjusted, own_v2_pro_baseline, player_champion_comfort_2026, random_50_50_baseline, team_elo_2026
research sqlite/home/botuser/polymarket-bot/lol_draft_value_bot/data/research/lol_draft_research.sqlite
predictions520
shadow entries2520
shadow results2396
alias suggestions3
feed counters{'schedule_fetch_ok': 1, 'event_details_fetch_ok': 7, 'completed_skipped': 5, 'draft_locked': 1, 'unstarted_skipped': 27}

Eligible Markets

MarketEligibleSkipTeamsGameOutcomes
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner
0xa73d2688b81859879f9fdd8953e3cc3330b2c8ad96cba9948d2d669887e6ec8c
yesCloud9, LYON1Cloud9: bid 51.0% / ask 55.0% / depth 588.0 | LYON: bid 45.0% / ask 49.0% / depth 706.97
LoL: Misa Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 1 Winner
0x51a3a3c51fa88661f5cb1c641f85c7e820ffd1247c278bf3fd9c7c61adeedac7
yesMisa Esports, PCIFIC1Misa Esports: bid 78.0% / ask 80.0% / depth 72.58 | PCIFIC : bid 20.0% / ask 22.0% / depth 88.6
LoL: Misa Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 2 Winner
0x0ef9db3fcc12ff34736bc9855f24375ba48798f65eb65aec8cff628df709c1ba
yesMisa Esports, PCIFIC2Misa Esports: bid 78.0% / ask 80.0% / depth 72.58 | PCIFIC : bid 20.0% / ask 22.0% / depth 85.8
LoL: Misa Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 3 Winner
0xb63246ae48a3e469ae147a0aeeb2fcb734eb13d6e7d880ef1e011fad5eb43c4e
yesMisa Esports, PCIFIC3Misa Esports: bid 77.0% / ask 80.0% / depth 95.58 | PCIFIC : bid 20.0% / ask 23.0% / depth 91.8
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner
0x7c90bcd3f6c0119ee8983ddc667410eb7066aeb2aef9c9f4050c53bb8fa1e47c
yesMVK Esports, GAM Esports1MVK Esports: bid 41.0% / ask 43.0% / depth 396.31 | GAM Esports: bid 57.0% / ask 59.0% / depth 50.4
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner
0xd828b701b00326f2afcc24482b8028f8d511ca0614e1c5aa44ef3e2cdbce048a
yesMVK Esports, GAM Esports2MVK Esports: bid 40.0% / ask 43.0% / depth 2639.0 | GAM Esports: bid 57.0% / ask 60.0% / depth 3114.0
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winner
0x5449eae035bfb60a1f173aa13fd41615969815ffa4769db639998747a204c68d
yesMVK Esports, GAM Esports3MVK Esports: bid 41.0% / ask 43.0% / depth 371.31 | GAM Esports: bid 57.0% / ask 59.0% / depth 170.17
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner
0x6dbce52805ac959c82572e2a0c39ba5bc6efc32f053a7b285149936f3576344c
yesWinthrop University, CCG Esports1Winthrop University: bid 46.0% / ask 51.0% / depth 387.85 | CCG Esports: bid 49.0% / ask 54.0% / depth 719.61
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner
0x28e975cc5100efa68f35320d46dc6cc8e947b85dc416d07571a20dbc0e14d81b
yesDplus KIA, HANJIN BRION1Dplus KIA: bid 66.0% / ask 67.0% / depth 1535.0 | HANJIN BRION: bid 33.0% / ask 34.0% / depth 1270.75
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner
0x5ec8e83ef4f8d1cb1a16246f12657a2d7898f0f81686634c410cf3d1a92655bb
yesDplus KIA, HANJIN BRION2Dplus KIA: bid 63.0% / ask 66.0% / depth 518.0 | HANJIN BRION: bid 34.0% / ask 37.0% / depth 7037.78
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner
0xa7e3cf030c090c782f657b86b1f3dbeb078783bd1f5e3cd07b13f4a4e1e3ef32
yesDplus KIA, HANJIN BRION3Dplus KIA: bid 63.0% / ask 66.0% / depth 619.0 | HANJIN BRION: bid 34.0% / ask 37.0% / depth 711.69
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 1 Winner
0x6f178a44a19aa0125f405bc2211a9ef9bb48fd1575cac48b2a3f93bbf488e0fe
yesFURIA Esports, LOS1FURIA Esports: bid 57.0% / ask 60.0% / depth 3258.25 | LOS: bid 40.0% / ask 43.0% / depth 55.0
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 2 Winner
0x0f46397b3581aac9e519c01832fa49f6077b73586a85c511336494ccb451fa4f
yesFURIA Esports, LOS2FURIA Esports: bid 56.0% / ask 59.0% / depth 1405.25 | LOS: bid 41.0% / ask 44.0% / depth 177.73000000000002
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 3 Winner
0x3e02eff225aafa3281381dc3c559f011eab2dcddacc597a819ec69ea8eb3bd0c
yesFURIA Esports, LOS3FURIA Esports: bid 57.0% / ask 59.0% / depth 500.0 | LOS: bid 41.0% / ask 43.0% / depth 55.0
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner
0x3bcbc49c9131d89de0dd875f786252a7ea7e626aff58f8a6d550252640daa117
yesFlyQuest, Team Liquid1FlyQuest: bid 51.0% / ask 54.0% / depth 719.52 | Team Liquid: bid 46.0% / ask 49.0% / depth 55.0
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner
0xa6149433bafe61580a0d36c78d554be19797fc89b8df35d74ab557d6a59ee0ea
yesFlyQuest, Team Liquid2FlyQuest: bid 50.0% / ask 53.0% / depth 105.0 | Team Liquid: bid 47.0% / ask 50.0% / depth 112.38
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner
0x33b3a168488c564bd8cdc958df6ea23b0dad2e0fa406363956711e645879b9fb
yesFlyQuest, Team Liquid3FlyQuest: bid 51.0% / ask 56.0% / depth 678.52 | Team Liquid: bid 44.0% / ask 49.0% / depth 613.38
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner
0x6cb62aad9b4611798f2a1ba60dae64c1e4b8c9ba400cb8231955e79e5765cc6f
yesTop Esports, Team WE1Top Esports: bid 61.0% / ask 66.0% / depth 2022.45 | Team WE: bid 34.0% / ask 39.0% / depth 51.870000000000005
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner
0x179db69e5d207a3409e224d84cfa5f69bba761621a7e408ee732edab49ab4f09
yesTop Esports, Team WE2Top Esports: bid 59.0% / ask 66.0% / depth 1553.0700000000002 | Team WE: bid 34.0% / ask 41.0% / depth 187.01
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner
0xd235a2a372c0fbfa503f80cb405aeb8590d4174a52d86d75e627ca7e997a200b
yesTop Esports, Team WE3Top Esports: bid 56.0% / ask 63.0% / depth 260.69 | Team WE: bid 37.0% / ask 44.0% / depth 167.01
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner
0x53f189b885196c814f613eabece0751d4501338a264440a26dd404e3c6daa720
yesTop Esports, Team WE4Top Esports: bid 55.0% / ask 62.0% / depth 9320.0 | Team WE: bid 38.0% / ask 45.0% / depth 619.5899999999999
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner
0x437ea9bd413f935b4902ee9fcedc3303a743d3813f56b2539b6343bffa2e6526
yesMovistar KOI, Karmine Corp1Movistar KOI: bid 43.0% / ask 45.0% / depth 326.75 | Karmine Corp: bid 55.0% / ask 57.0% / depth 361.53
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner
0x521ae8c5ac6dc3db6cfbccc2293189657f0637a2f14b13c105f62ac2c4722177
yesMovistar KOI, Karmine Corp2Movistar KOI: bid 45.0% / ask 47.0% / depth 383.46000000000004 | Karmine Corp: bid 53.0% / ask 55.0% / depth 130.53
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner
0xa70bd46eab2aa322063fc0c5f9b23976457f7b733c6c89329cde73e048054111
yesMovistar KOI, Karmine Corp3Movistar KOI: bid 45.0% / ask 47.0% / depth 109.44 | Karmine Corp: bid 53.0% / ask 55.0% / depth 55.0
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports - Game 1 Winner
0xe68ec25ea3718d144838a8bc5d1c0cdce3ac171360ec3a935d3cd219ce30456f
yesRED Canids, Leviatan Esports1RED Canids: bid 75.0% / ask 83.0% / depth 1103.0 | Leviatan Esports: bid 17.0% / ask 25.0% / depth 551.12
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner
0x06c6f30cc1f3b8bc1244853388c6f59c2c5541660fbf1eebe532866b44207e1c
yesFluxo W7M, paiN Gaming1Fluxo W7M: bid 58.0% / ask 65.0% / depth 1138.0 | paiN Gaming: bid 35.0% / ask 42.0% / depth 594.12
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner
0x70699dfb1ad3b6ca6c99b401c1975a6500066457f77104600881425508090786
yesLOUD, Vivo Keyd Stars1LOUD: bid 52.0% / ask 60.0% / depth 1138.0 | Vivo Keyd Stars: bid 40.0% / ask 48.0% / depth 3045.0
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner
0xaf3ad1ff6b88d3193191b34f2ec5bd31bcd8ba54b50f2ea8757c6c68485058eb
yesAnyone's Legend, LGD Gaming1Anyone's Legend: bid 73.0% / ask 75.0% / depth 20628.04 | LGD Gaming: bid 25.0% / ask 27.0% / depth 10329.99
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner
0xafd6ad3ff2086c169b81de0246539d2011e4dd46c407f18fb8a283c6a77b7f82
yesAnyone's Legend, LGD Gaming2Anyone's Legend: bid 74.0% / ask 75.0% / depth 25686.47 | LGD Gaming: bid 25.0% / ask 26.0% / depth 7656.5599999999995
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner
0x8a7ddbb524524bacbce32f21db8c284509b0909fe9fc44b43df07f1a4c7da006
yesAnyone's Legend, LGD Gaming3Anyone's Legend: bid 74.0% / ask 75.0% / depth 25882.0 | LGD Gaming: bid 25.0% / ask 26.0% / depth 7401.139999999999
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner
0x286cedbbef335747b5f1f5937d8ee5624b9cae1d063d240daa2e9c68d194358a
yesAnyone's Legend, LGD Gaming4Anyone's Legend: bid 66.0% / ask 67.0% / depth 43360.05 | LGD Gaming: bid 33.0% / ask 34.0% / depth 13623.98
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner
0x39b1dfb88a9fd6a90b54945ef760261966e4b7d96f9c5b18afa7a08bd95c01c0
yesJD Gaming, Bilibili Gaming1JD Gaming: bid 33.0% / ask 36.0% / depth 845.0 | Bilibili Gaming: bid 64.0% / ask 67.0% / depth 3554.6
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner
0xaa89d1d04c06e0dc1c84f2e43acf5b8982b01abe48433c2b635b2b5ceaaa257c
yesJD Gaming, Bilibili Gaming2JD Gaming: bid 32.0% / ask 37.0% / depth 347.02 | Bilibili Gaming: bid 63.0% / ask 68.0% / depth 2620.77
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner
0x78b1d80307c410c0dcb22ec5e06187f8d8c2b24cbcf7467f88a247c00733712d
yesJD Gaming, Bilibili Gaming3JD Gaming: bid 35.0% / ask 38.0% / depth 1439.44 | Bilibili Gaming: bid 62.0% / ask 65.0% / depth 1356.93